Low Housing Inventory Still in Headlines

The number of homes on the market always declines toward the end of the year. This year, inventory has been declining all year. Quality homes are selling fast and the number of distressed properties has been declining.

Today in Laguna Niguel there are 123 active listings, which is about half of what we had last January. Only 16 of those are distressed properties. There is only one bank-owned property active in Laguna Niguel today. There are only 46 detached active properties under $1 million.

Dana Point has a few more active listings, standing at 153 today. Those are made up of 120 detached and 33 attached properties. The highest priced Dana Point home is$ 20 million in Monarch Cove and there are only 32 active detached listings under $1 million in Dana Point. The total number of distressed properties in DP is "9".

For any who might not know the terminology, we define distressed property as bank-owned (REO), pre-foreclosure or "short sale". Again, the only thing short is the amount of the payoff to the bank.

My crystal ball is a bit cloudy lately but I do know there is quite a large amount of "shadow inventory". Those are homes where the home owner is behind on payments and or in formal default to the bank. A lot of those types of owners have their heads buried in the sand and are hoping for a bailout or government stay. Some buyers are hoping that the banks will crack down harder after the election, thereby increasing the numbers of distressed home coming on the market.

The real debate is how this might affect prices. Some Realtors think prices will be pushed down and others think not. Personally I believe the demand for housing is so high and the investor pool is so active that any inventory will easily be absorbed.